Generate HVAC Financial Projections in 60 Seconds
HVAC businesses deal with extreme seasonal revenue swings that make cash flow projections critical. Summer AC repairs and winter heating calls can generate 60% of annual revenue in just 4 months, while shoulder seasons leave trucks idle. Lenders and investors want to see how maintenance contract revenue smooths out those peaks and valleys, and how equipment markup and installation revenue compare against service call income.
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How It Works
Three steps to your hvac financial projections
Describe your business
Tell us about your business model, revenue streams, costs, and growth expectations.
AI builds your projections
Our AI generates 5-year financial projections with income statement, cash flow, and key metrics.
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Export your projections as PDF or Word. Share with banks, investors, or your team.
Sample Output
See what hvac projections look like
Sample projections for a hvac business based on real industry benchmarks.
Business Overview
Summit Air Mechanical is an HVAC company in Louisville, KY founded by Darren Walsh, a 13-year veteran who holds both his HVAC contractor license and EPA 608 Universal certification. The company started three years ago doing residential service calls and has grown into a mix of residential replacements (55% of revenue), service and repair (30%), and maintenance agreements (15%). Darren runs four service techs and two install crews out of a 2,400 sq ft warehouse. He is pursuing a $250,000 credit line to pre-purchase equipment inventory for the summer season and add a commercial maintenance division.
5-Year Financial Projections
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $980,000 | $1,480,000 | $2,100,000 | $2,750,000 | $3,500,000 |
| Equipment & Material Cost | $382,200 (39%) | $562,400 (38%) | $777,000 (37%) | $990,000 (36%) | $1,225,000 (35%) |
| Labor & Subcontractor Cost | $303,800 (31%) | $444,000 (30%) | $609,000 (29%) | $770,000 (28%) | $945,000 (27%) |
| Net Profit | $88,200 (9%) | $177,600 (12%) | $315,000 (15%) | $440,000 (16%) | $595,000 (17%) |
| Maintenance Contracts | 180 | 340 | 580 | 850 | 1,200 |
Key Financial Metrics
Revenue per Tech
$245K → $292K
Avg Replacement Ticket
$8,400
Maintenance Contract Value
$189/year
Peak-to-Trough Ratio
3.2x monthly
Full projections include cash flow, balance sheet & more
Everything in your hvac financial projections
5-year revenue forecast
Year-by-year revenue projections based on your pricing, growth rate, and market size.
Expense breakdown
Detailed operating expenses: payroll, rent, marketing, materials, and overhead by category.
Profit & loss statement
Complete P&L with gross margin, operating income, and net profit for each year.
Break-even analysis
Know exactly when your business becomes profitable and the revenue needed to get there.
Done in 60 seconds
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HVAC financial projections FAQ
How do HVAC companies handle seasonal revenue swings in financial projections?
HVAC revenue concentrates heavily in summer (June through August for cooling) and winter (December through February for heating). In most markets, those 5 to 6 months account for 55 to 65% of annual revenue. Your projections need month-by-month detail in Year 1 showing this pattern. Maintenance agreements are the main tool for smoothing seasonality, since they generate predictable monthly or annual income and keep techs busy during shoulder months. A company with 500+ maintenance contracts can cover 25 to 35% of fixed overhead from that recurring revenue alone. Lenders pay close attention to this ratio.
What are the profit margins on HVAC equipment installation vs service?
Equipment replacements (new AC units, furnaces, heat pumps) carry gross margins of 40 to 55% after accounting for the equipment cost, labor, and materials. A $9,000 residential system install might cost $4,500 in equipment and $1,800 in labor, leaving $2,700 in gross profit. Service and repair calls produce higher gross margins of 60 to 70% because parts cost less relative to the labor charge. Maintenance contracts run margins of 30 to 45% but their real value is lead generation. About 25 to 35% of maintenance visits result in a repair or replacement recommendation, making them the cheapest source of high-ticket sales.
How much does it cost to start an HVAC company?
Starting an HVAC business requires $100,000 to $300,000 depending on your scope. Major costs include service vans ($40,000 to $55,000 each, fully stocked with recovery units, gauges, and common parts), contractor licensing and EPA certification ($2,000 to $6,000), general liability and workers comp insurance ($12,000 to $25,000/year), initial equipment inventory for installations ($15,000 to $40,000), and 3 to 6 months of operating capital. Many HVAC contractors start with service-only to minimize equipment inventory needs, then add installation work once cash flow stabilizes. Manufacturer dealer agreements with companies like Carrier, Trane, or Lennox can provide financing on equipment inventory.
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